@RP131 - England Hospital Data - 23/11/2021

This is an extended version of the daily 'Hospital' thread I post to twitter. This includes all the content from the twitter thread, along with additional material that has been trimmed to avoid bombarding people's timelines.

[1/18] Latest view on England covid hospital admissions (as of 23-Nov) with 648 reported for 21-Nov.

The 7 day average is now 675, equivalent to around 10-Oct (i.e. 39 days ago), a reduction of 87 (11%) in the last week.
[2/18] Hospital admission charts for London, East of England, South East and South West. Note the different scales.
[3/18] Hospital admission charts for North East & Yorkshire, North West and Midlands. Note the different scales.
[4/18] Latest view on England patients with a +ve covid test currently in hospital, with 6,257 reported as of 8am on 23-Nov.

The count is now 6,257, a reduction of 366 (6%) in the last week.
[5/18] Hospital current patient charts for London, East of England, South East and South West. Note the different scales.
[6/18] Hospital current patient charts for North East & Yorkshire, North West and Midlands. Note the different scales.
[7/18] Age ranges of England hospital admissions. Note this age-range data lags a day or so behind the above totals data.
[8/18] Percentage view of age ranges of England hospital admissions.
[9/18] Hospital age ranges of admissions for NHS regions London, East of England, South East and South West.
[10/18] Hospital age ranges of admissions for NHS regions North East & Yorkshire, North West and Midlands.
[11/18] Percentage view of hospital age ranges of admissions for NHS regions London, East of England, South East and South West.
[12/18] Percentage view of hospital age ranges of admissions for NHS regions North East & Yorkshire, North West and Midlands.
[13/18] Chart to compare current England hospital bed occupancy actuals against the various scenarios of the Imperial model from the 17-Feb SPI-M-O document on easing of restrictions.
[14/18] Chart to compare current England hospital bed occupancy actuals against the various scenarios of the Warwick model from the 17-Feb SPI-M-O document on easing of restrictions.
[15/18] Closer look at current hospital occupancy actuals against Imperial/Warwick models for scenarios 2 and 3, which I think are the closest to the gov't adopted roadmap.
[16/18] Timeline illustration of the various scenarios used for the modelling that supported unlock roadmap planning. Work in progress - feedback welcome!
[17/18] Chart to compare the Admissions projections from the 8-Sep SPI-M-O consensus statement with actuals.

This are the projections being used as basis for calls for additional restrictions.

The document says the likely trajectory is between green and blue lines.
[18/18] Selection of models from the 13-Oct SPI-M-O document for Autumn/Winter scenarios with the latest actuals.

Unusually, they have under-estimated but still goes to show how (as stated by the modellers themselves) they are not a reliable indicator of what will actually happen.

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