@RP131 - England Hospital Data - 09/01/2022

This is an extended version of the daily 'Hospital' thread I post to twitter. This includes all the content from the twitter thread, along with additional material that has been trimmed to avoid bombarding people's timelines.

[1/28] Latest view on England mechanical ventilator beds (with a positive covid test), as of 8am on 09-Jan.

The count is now 704, equivalent to around 18-Oct (i.e. 83 days ago), a reduction of 65 (8%) in the last week.
[2/28] Also including London in main thread due to current focus on that region.

The count is now 224, a reduction of 6 (2.6%) in the last week.
[3/28] Mechanical ventilator bed charts for London, East of England, South East and South West. Note the different scales.
[4/28] Mechanical ventilator bed charts for North East & Yorkshire, North West and Midlands. Note the different scales.
[5/28] Latest view on England patients with a positive covid test currently in hospital, as of 8am on 09-Jan.

The count is now 16,399, an increase of 3248 (25%) in the last week.
[6/28] Hospital current patient charts for London, East of England, South East and South West. Note the different scales.
[7/28] Hospital current patient charts for North East & Yorkshire, North West and Midlands. Note the different scales.
[8/28] Latest view on England covid hospital admissions (as of 09-Jan) with 1,772 reported for 07-Jan.

The 7 day average is now 1996, an increase of 174 (10%) in the last week.
[9/28] Hospital admission charts for London, East of England, South East and South West. Note the different scales.
[10/28] Hospital admission charts for North East & Yorkshire, North West and Midlands. Note the different scales.
[11/28] Charts by England NHS Region of Admissions, Patients and Mechanical Ventilator Beds per 100K of population (to allow relative comparison).
[12/28] Plus a set extended out to 400 days to give a bit more historical context.
[13/28] Age ranges of England hospital admissions. Note this age-range data lags a day or so behind the above totals data.
[14/28] Percentage view of age ranges of England hospital admissions.
[15/28] Hospital age ranges of admissions for NHS regions London, East of England, South East and South West.
[16/28] Hospital age ranges of admissions for NHS regions North East & Yorkshire, North West and Midlands.
[17/28] Percentage view of hospital age ranges of admissions for NHS regions London, East of England, South East and South West.
[18/28] Percentage view of hospital age ranges of admissions for NHS regions North East & Yorkshire, North West and Midlands.
[19/28] Chart to compare current England hospital bed occupancy actuals against the various scenarios of the Imperial model from the 17-Feb SPI-M-O document on easing of restrictions.
[20/28] Chart to compare current England hospital bed occupancy actuals against the various scenarios of the Warwick model from the 17-Feb SPI-M-O document on easing of restrictions.
[21/28] Closer look at current hospital occupancy actuals against Imperial/Warwick models for scenarios 2 and 3, which I think are the closest to the gov't adopted roadmap.
[22/28] Timeline illustration of the various scenarios used for the modelling that supported unlock roadmap planning. Work in progress - feedback welcome!
[23/28] Chart to compare the Admissions projections from the 8-Sep SPI-M-O consensus statement with actuals.

This are the projections being used as basis for calls for additional restrictions.

The document says the likely trajectory is between green and blue lines.
[24/28] Selection of models from the 13-Oct SPI-M-O document for Autumn/Winter scenarios with the latest actuals.

Unusually, they have under-estimated but still goes to show how (as stated by the modellers themselves) they are not a reliable indicator of what will actually happen.
[25/28] The most optimistic models for Admissions / Deaths from the 11-Dec LSHTM report on potential consequences of Omicron, with latest actuals applied.

Note that the report is marked as "PRELIMINARY � NOT PEER REVIEWED" and "work in progress".
[26/28] Imperial "Hypothetical Country" Omicron Deaths Model from 16-Dec Report with latest England actuals applied in red. A bit rough due to low resolution input image but good enough to illustrate how the model doesn't match England reality.
[27/28] Warwick 30-Dec Projections based on Early Omicron Variant Dynamics in England with latest UKHSA actuals applied in red. I think it says that if Omicron is half as bad as Delta then with no further restrictions (dark red line) we'll have 1000 deaths per day by 7th January.
[28/28] Also included in the 30-Dec Warwick document (considerably less prominently) is a model for Omicron being 10% as severe as Delta and with 20% strength of restrictions. This still has England at about 310 daily deaths by 07-Jan, growing to a peak of 600 later in the month.

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