[1/28] Latest view on England covid hospital admissions (as of 17-Jan) with 1,604 reported for 15-Jan.
The 7 day average is now 1921, equivalent to around 29-Dec (i.e. 14 days ago), a reduction of 81 (4.1%) in the last week.
[2/28] Hospital admission charts for London, East of England, South East and South West. Note the different scales.
[3/28] Hospital admission charts for North East & Yorkshire, North West and Midlands. Note the different scales.
[4/28] Latest view on England patients with a positive covid test currently in hospital, as of 8am on 17-Jan.
The count is now 16,621, a reduction of 499 (2.9%) in the last week.
[5/28] Hospital current patient charts for London, East of England, South East and South West. Note the different scales.
[6/28] Hospital current patient charts for North East & Yorkshire, North West and Midlands. Note the different scales.
[7/28] Latest view on England mechanical ventilator beds (with a positive covid test), as of 8am on 17-Jan.
The count is now 623, a reduction of 84 (12%) in the last week.
[8/28] Also including London in main thread due to current focus on that region.
The count is now 219, a reduction of 6 (2.7%) in the last week.
[9/28] Mechanical ventilator bed charts for London, East of England, South East and South West. Note the different scales.
[10/28] Mechanical ventilator bed charts for North East & Yorkshire, North West and Midlands. Note the different scales.
[11/28] Charts by England NHS Region of Admissions, Patients and Mechanical Ventilator Beds per 100K of population (to allow relative comparison).
[12/28] Plus a set extended out to 400 days to give a bit more historical context.
[13/28] Age ranges of England hospital admissions. Note this age-range data lags a day or so behind the above totals data.
[14/28] Percentage view of age ranges of England hospital admissions.
[15/28] Hospital age ranges of admissions for NHS regions London, East of England, South East and South West.
[16/28] Hospital age ranges of admissions for NHS regions North East & Yorkshire, North West and Midlands.
[17/28] Percentage view of hospital age ranges of admissions for NHS regions London, East of England, South East and South West.
[18/28] Percentage view of hospital age ranges of admissions for NHS regions North East & Yorkshire, North West and Midlands.
[19/28] Chart to compare current England hospital bed occupancy actuals against the various scenarios of the Imperial model from the 17-Feb SPI-M-O document on easing of restrictions.
[20/28] Chart to compare current England hospital bed occupancy actuals against the various scenarios of the Warwick model from the 17-Feb SPI-M-O document on easing of restrictions.
[21/28] Closer look at current hospital occupancy actuals against Imperial/Warwick models for scenarios 2 and 3, which I think are the closest to the gov't adopted roadmap.
[22/28] Timeline illustration of the various scenarios used for the modelling that supported unlock roadmap planning. Work in progress - feedback welcome!
[23/28] Chart to compare the Admissions projections from the 8-Sep SPI-M-O consensus statement with actuals.
This are the projections being used as basis for calls for additional restrictions.
The document says the likely trajectory is between green and blue lines.
[24/28] Selection of models from the 13-Oct SPI-M-O document for Autumn/Winter scenarios with the latest actuals.
Unusually, they have under-estimated but still goes to show how (as stated by the modellers themselves) they are not a reliable indicator of what will actually happen.
[25/28] The most optimistic models for Admissions / Deaths from the 11-Dec LSHTM report on potential consequences of Omicron, with latest actuals applied.
Note that the report is marked as "PRELIMINARY � NOT PEER REVIEWED" and "work in progress".
[26/28] Imperial "Hypothetical Country" Omicron Deaths Model from 16-Dec Report with latest England actuals applied in red. A bit rough due to low resolution input image but good enough to illustrate how the model doesn't match England reality.
[27/28] Warwick 30-Dec projections for Omicron. Main charts from document for Omicron at 50% severe as Delta and dark red for no further restrictions.
The model projects 12-Jan as roughly 1385 deaths a day while the latest rolling average of actuals to that date is 203 (85% lower).
[28/28] Also included in the 30-Dec Warwick doc (considerably less prominently) is a model for Omicron at 10% severe as Delta with 20% restrictions.
The model projects 12-Jan as roughly 327 deaths a day while the latest rolling average of actuals to that date is 203 (38% lower).
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