[1/27] Latest view on England covid hospital admissions (as of 22-Apr) with 1,322 reported for 20-Apr.
The 7 day average is now 1425, equivalent to around 10-Mar (i.e. 38 days ago), a reduction of 440 (24%) in the last week.
[2/27] Hospital admission charts for London, East of England, South East and South West. Note the different scales.
[3/27] Hospital admission charts for North East & Yorkshire, North West and Midlands. Note the different scales.
[4/27] Latest view on England patients with a positive covid test currently in hospital, as of 8am on 22-Apr.
The count is now 12,883, equivalent to around 21-Mar (i.e. 32 days ago), a reduction of 1511 (10%) in the last week.
[5/27] Hospital current patient charts for London, East of England, South East and South West. Note the different scales.
[6/27] Hospital current patient charts for North East & Yorkshire, North West and Midlands. Note the different scales.
[7/27] Latest view on England mechanical ventilator beds (with a positive covid test), as of 8am on 22-Apr.
The count is now 283, an increase of 12 (4.4%) in the last week.
[8/27] Mechanical ventilator bed charts for London, East of England, South East and South West. Note the different scales.
[9/27] Mechanical ventilator bed charts for North East & Yorkshire, North West and Midlands. Note the different scales.
[10/27] Charts by England NHS Region of Admissions, Patients and Mechanical Ventilator Beds per 100K of population (to allow relative comparison).
[11/27] Plus a set extended out to 400 days to give a bit more historical context.
[12/27] Age ranges of England hospital admissions. Note this age-range data lags a day or so behind the above totals data.
[13/27] Percentage view of age ranges of England hospital admissions.
[14/27] Hospital age ranges of admissions for NHS regions London, East of England, South East and South West.
[15/27] Hospital age ranges of admissions for NHS regions North East & Yorkshire, North West and Midlands.
[16/27] Percentage view of hospital age ranges of admissions for NHS regions London, East of England, South East and South West.
[17/27] Percentage view of hospital age ranges of admissions for NHS regions North East & Yorkshire, North West and Midlands.
[18/27] Chart to compare current England hospital bed occupancy actuals against the various scenarios of the Imperial model from the 17-Feb SPI-M-O document on easing of restrictions.
[19/27] Chart to compare current England hospital bed occupancy actuals against the various scenarios of the Warwick model from the 17-Feb SPI-M-O document on easing of restrictions.
[20/27] Closer look at current hospital occupancy actuals against Imperial/Warwick models for scenarios 2 and 3, which I think are the closest to the gov't adopted roadmap.
[21/27] Timeline illustration of the various scenarios used for the modelling that supported unlock roadmap planning. Work in progress - feedback welcome!
[22/27] Chart to compare the Admissions projections from the 8-Sep SPI-M-O consensus statement with actuals.
This are the projections being used as basis for calls for additional restrictions.
The document says the likely trajectory is between green and blue lines.
[23/27] Selection of models from the 13-Oct SPI-M-O document for Autumn/Winter scenarios with the latest actuals.
Unusually, they have under-estimated but still goes to show how (as stated by the modellers themselves) they are not a reliable indicator of what will actually happen.
[24/27] The most optimistic models for Admissions / Deaths from the 11-Dec LSHTM report on potential consequences of Omicron, with latest actuals applied.
Note that the report is marked as "PRELIMINARY � NOT PEER REVIEWED" and "work in progress".
[25/27] Imperial "Hypothetical Country" Omicron Deaths Model from 16-Dec Report with latest England actuals applied in red. A bit rough due to low resolution input image but good enough to illustrate how the model doesn't match England reality.
[26/27] Warwick 30-Dec projections for Omicron. Main charts from document for Omicron at 50% severe as Delta and dark red for no further restrictions.
The model projected roughly 82,681 deaths from 01-Jan to 17-Apr while the actuals have been 19,779 (76% lower).
[27/27] Also included in the 30-Dec Warwick doc (considerably less prominently) is a model for Omicron at 10% severe as Delta with 20% restrictions.
The model projected roughly 17,023 deaths from 01-Jan to 17-Apr while the actuals have been 19,779 (16% higher).
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