@RP131 - England Hospital Data - 27/05/2022

This is an extended version of the daily 'Hospital' thread I post to twitter. This includes all the content from the twitter thread, along with additional material that has been trimmed to avoid bombarding people's timelines.

[1/23] Latest view on England covid hospital admissions (as of 27-May) with 475 reported for 25-May.

The 7 day average is now 473, equivalent to around 08-Jul (i.e. 318 days ago), a reduction of 117 (20%) in the last week.
[2/23] Hospital admission charts for London, East of England, South East and South West. Note the different scales.
[3/23] Hospital admission charts for North East & Yorkshire, North West and Midlands. Note the different scales.
[4/23] Latest view on England patients with a positive covid test currently in hospital, as of 8am on 27-May.

The count is now 4,197, equivalent to around 21-Jul (i.e. 310 days ago), a reduction of 990 (19%) in the last week.
[5/23] Hospital current patient charts for London, East of England, South East and South West. Note the different scales.
[6/23] Hospital current patient charts for North East & Yorkshire, North West and Midlands. Note the different scales.
[7/23] Latest view on England mechanical ventilator beds (with a positive covid test), as of 8am on 27-May.

The count is now 134, equivalent to around 07-Jun (i.e. 354 days ago), a reduction of 37 (22%) in the last week.
[8/23] Mechanical ventilator bed charts for London, East of England, South East and South West. Note the different scales.
[9/23] Mechanical ventilator bed charts for North East & Yorkshire, North West and Midlands. Note the different scales.
[10/23] Charts by England NHS Region of Admissions, Patients and Mechanical Ventilator Beds per 100K of population (to allow relative comparison).
[11/23] Plus a set extended out to 400 days to give a bit more historical context.
[12/23] Age ranges of England hospital admissions. Note this age-range data lags a day or so behind the above totals data.
[13/23] Percentage view of age ranges of England hospital admissions.
[14/23] Chart to compare current England hospital bed occupancy actuals against the various scenarios of the Imperial model from the 17-Feb SPI-M-O document on easing of restrictions.
[15/23] Chart to compare current England hospital bed occupancy actuals against the various scenarios of the Warwick model from the 17-Feb SPI-M-O document on easing of restrictions.
[16/23] Closer look at current hospital occupancy actuals against Imperial/Warwick models for scenarios 2 and 3, which I think are the closest to the gov't adopted roadmap.
[17/23] Timeline illustration of the various scenarios used for the modelling that supported unlock roadmap planning. Work in progress - feedback welcome!
[18/23] Chart to compare the Admissions projections from the 8-Sep SPI-M-O consensus statement with actuals.

This are the projections being used as basis for calls for additional restrictions.

The document says the likely trajectory is between green and blue lines.
[19/23] Selection of models from the 13-Oct SPI-M-O document for Autumn/Winter scenarios with the latest actuals.

Unusually, they have under-estimated but still goes to show how (as stated by the modellers themselves) they are not a reliable indicator of what will actually happen.
[20/23] The most optimistic models for Admissions / Deaths from the 11-Dec LSHTM report on potential consequences of Omicron, with latest actuals applied.

Note that the report is marked as "PRELIMINARY � NOT PEER REVIEWED" and "work in progress".
[21/23] Imperial "Hypothetical Country" Omicron Deaths Model from 16-Dec Report with latest England actuals applied in red. A bit rough due to low resolution input image but good enough to illustrate how the model doesn't match England reality.
[22/23] Warwick 30-Dec projections for Omicron. Main charts from document for Omicron at 50% severe as Delta and dark red for no further restrictions.

The model projected roughly 82,681 deaths from 01-Jan to 22-May while the actuals have been 24,462 (70% lower).
[23/23] Also included in the 30-Dec Warwick doc (considerably less prominently) is a model for Omicron at 10% severe as Delta with 20% restrictions.

The model projected roughly 17,023 deaths from 01-Jan to 22-May while the actuals have been 24,462 (44% higher).

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